Thirty-six years ago today marks the beginning of the Tet Offensive, a surprise attack by the South Vietnamese National Liberation Front and the forces of North Vietnam. Initial results were encouraging for the NLF -- several provincial capitals were overr-run, the old imperial capital of Hue was taken and commando teams in Saigon blasted their way into the American embassy. Viet Cong execution squads arrested and murdered thousands of "enemies of the people" while others were marched off into captivity for "political re-education".
The popular uprising for which the NLF had hoped did not materialize and superior American and ARVN military power soon asserted itself. Within a week the rebels had been driven from most of their positions and within a month they had been scoured out of the Citadel in Hue and obliterated in the hills surrounding Khe Sanh. Casualties for the NLF were so high that they would never regain their fighting strength and the brunt of the guerrilla war would henceforth fall on the shoulders of North Vietnamese regulars.
The irony is that this stinging military defeat soon turned into a propaganda victory. The media spin was such that opposition to the war in the Unitd States accelerated, defeatism infected the administration of Lyndon Johnson and the President himself retired from politics, leaving the way clear for the election of Richard Nixon.
The lessons for 2004 are clear. Despite overwhelming military successes in Afghanistan and Iraq the war on terror can still be lost on American tv sets. Media emphasis on a military "quagmire", ungrateful Iraqis and the disopprobrium of world opinion could lead to a Democratic presidential victory in November. Aside from Joe Lieberman, none of the dwarves now contending for the nomination seem aware that the West is in the midst of a new Thirty Year's War. Instead they seek to win the good-will of the French, the Germans and Kofi Anan; with that in hand they will then turn to eliminating the "root causes" of terrorism. Imagine their surprise when, despite increased funding for gay street theatre in Kabul, another 9/11 atrocity occurs on American soil perpetrated by folks for whom the root cause of jihad is the continued existence of infidels.
Anyone with a working deity to pray to should direct their gods to vouchsafe the good health and political success of George W. Bush and Pervez Musharraf.
Posted by Dexter at January 31, 2004 09:00 PM