Thirty-six years ago today marks the beginning of the Tet Offensive, a surprise attack by the South Vietnamese National Liberation Front and the forces of North Vietnam. Initial results were encouraging for the NLF -- several provincial capitals were overr-run, the old imperial capital of Hue was taken and commando teams in Saigon blasted their way into the American embassy. Viet Cong execution squads arrested and murdered thousands of "enemies of the people" while others were marched off into captivity for "political re-education".
The popular uprising for which the NLF had hoped did not materialize and superior American and ARVN military power soon asserted itself. Within a week the rebels had been driven from most of their positions and within a month they had been scoured out of the Citadel in Hue and obliterated in the hills surrounding Khe Sanh. Casualties for the NLF were so high that they would never regain their fighting strength and the brunt of the guerrilla war would henceforth fall on the shoulders of North Vietnamese regulars.
The irony is that this stinging military defeat soon turned into a propaganda victory. The media spin was such that opposition to the war in the Unitd States accelerated, defeatism infected the administration of Lyndon Johnson and the President himself retired from politics, leaving the way clear for the election of Richard Nixon.
The lessons for 2004 are clear. Despite overwhelming military successes in Afghanistan and Iraq the war on terror can still be lost on American tv sets. Media emphasis on a military "quagmire", ungrateful Iraqis and the disopprobrium of world opinion could lead to a Democratic presidential victory in November. Aside from Joe Lieberman, none of the dwarves now contending for the nomination seem aware that the West is in the midst of a new Thirty Year's War. Instead they seek to win the good-will of the French, the Germans and Kofi Anan; with that in hand they will then turn to eliminating the "root causes" of terrorism. Imagine their surprise when, despite increased funding for gay street theatre in Kabul, another 9/11 atrocity occurs on American soil perpetrated by folks for whom the root cause of jihad is the continued existence of infidels.
Anyone with a working deity to pray to should direct their gods to vouchsafe the good health and political success of George W. Bush and Pervez Musharraf.
Who said the following in a letter to the President of the United States?
After long and careful thought, and after several years of watching the gross atrocities committed by the ____, I have reluctantly concluded that the efforts of the United Nations and NATO in _____ are a complete failure.
I think your policy up to this date has been absolutely correct. We must give, and have given, this policy with our allies and with the United Nations every opportunity to work. It is evident, however, that the cost in human lives in allowing this policy to continue is too great. In addition, and perhaps more importantly for the United States, we are now in a position of ignoring, as many did in the 1940s, one of the worst crimes committed in history. If we ignore these behaviors, no matter where they occur, our moral fiber as a people becomes weakened. . . .
Since it is clearly no longer possible to take action in conjunction with NATO and the United Nations, I have reluctantly concluded that we must take unilateral action.
The answer is Howard Dean, to Clinton in 1995, urging him to involve the American military in Bosnia. Can anyone explain why Clark would think unilateral intervention was desirable there but not in Saddam Hussein's Iraq where the level of atrocities was always much higher and the danger to peace in strategic areas much more imminent?
Much has been made over the last couple of days of the revelations of former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, especially his alleged astonishment that the Bush cabinet began discussing the overthrow of Saddam Hussein early in 2001. Those who find this surprising or alarming have overlooked the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act, passed during the Clinton administration. This act made the replacement of Saddam official US government policy (though it did not commit American troops to this task). It condemned the Baathist wars with Iraq's neighbours, the gassing of Kurds, the obstruction of the United Nations and the possession of weapons of mass destruction. The act also foresaw some of the things which O'Neill now professes to have found troubling such as the development of democracy in post-Saddam Iraq and the setting up of war crimes tribunals.
I don't believe that this revelation will cause much trouble for George W. Bush's re-election chances. Those who believe that the world is bettter off without the Butcher of Baghdad will be unswayed and those who believe that the Bush administration orchestrated 9/11 will only see O'Neill's remarks as further proof of Bushean perfidy.
There is, however, something in O'Neill's recollections that will prove harder for Bush to deal with in the election campaign. This is the decision to undertake a second round of tax cuts, especially cuts that seemed to disproportionately benefit the wealthy. O'Neill recalls Bush saying: "Haven't we already given money to rich people? Shouldn't we be giving money to the middle?" You can be sure that Democrats will be repeating that question throughout 2004.
Dean, who will with the grace of some higher power (the Clintons?) become the Democratic presidential nominee, has invoked theology to justify his acceptance of gay unions. Here are his exact words:
"From a religious point of view, if God had thought homosexuality is a sin, he would not have created gay people."
Dean used to be a medical doctor. He has essentially devoted a large part of his career to countering "the will of God" as expressed in people's genetics. It seems safe to assume that Dr. Dean would never have withheld medical treatment from diabetics, on the grounds that a significant part of their disease was genetic and therefore it was the will of God that they have unbalanced blood sugar. Similarly, I doubt that he declined to treat sufferers of genetically caused cancerous tumours, whether or not it was the will of God that some people have cancer. For a man of medicine to embrace biological determinism is the ultimate in either stupidity or hypocrisy, and whatever else Dean may be, he isn't stupid.
Gay unions are an issue about which well-meaning people may disagree. What is so awful about Dean is his dishonesty. Let the man declare that he supports this position because he believes it is morally right, or simply politically expedient, to do so. What is even worse is the refusal of the blinkered media, or Dean's rivals for the nomination, to expose his hypocrisy and fuzzy reasoning for the dishonesty that it is.
At some level you have to feel sorry for the Palestinians -- as much as any other human collective they deserve to be free of foreign military occupation and to have a state of their own where they can govern or misgovern themselves in their own fashion. But has any other group ever shown such a limitless talent for putting themselves in the wrong, offending potential friends and delaying their own independence? As former Israeli foreign minister Abba Eban said, "The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." (He also said: "If Algeria introduced a resolution declaring that the earth was flat and that Israel had flattened it, it would pass by a vote of 164 to 13 with 26 abstentions.")
The latest missed opportunity came when Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa mosque took time out from worshipping their god to attack the visiting Egyptian foreign minister. Shouting "Traitor!", "Sell-out!" and other endearments they beat on the poor fellow with the soles of their shoes (the ultimate sign of disrespect in Arab culture, akin to a Canadian pounding on someone with a pair of hockey skates). To add insult to injury, Israeli soldiers had to rescue the bruised dignitary and transport him to a Zionist hospital.
To those Egyptians who watched the assault on television and who chose not to believe the wide-spread story that the attack was orchestrated by those cunning Jews, this was the last straw. An outpouring of rage and disgust aimed at the Palestinians dominated the Egyptian media for weeks. Lamented the newspaper Al-Masaa: "You beat the man who came on your behalf, and it is Israel that takes him to the hospital for treatment. What shame and disgrace you have cast upon yourselves and on your cause?" According to the influential daily Al-Ahram Palestinians were an ungrateful and hostile people, "enemies of their own cause, the enemies of their own rights, the enemies of their own struggle" and they belong in the garbage bin of history.
If angering the most powerful nation in the Arab world was not enough, the Palestinians now seem set to outrage the gay-friendly European Union by their policy of violence against male homosexuals. Jail, beatings by police or death by angry relatives are the fates of outed Palestinian gays. Some have been offered a chance to become suicide bombers in order to wipe out their shame. Where do such luckless individuals flee? To the oppressive Zionist Entity, of course -- Israel is signatory to any number of United Nations resolutions on human rights. What does Svend Robinson, arch-supporter of Yasser Arafat, make of this conundrum?
An interesting story in the New York times about Howard Dean's religion.
Early in the campaign for the Democraatic presidential nomination Dean avoided mentioning religion and complained that campaigning in the South traditionally focussed on "guns, God and gays". Apparently he has been told that he is coming across as too secular and must therefore start appearing as a man of faith.
Dean is willing to try -- he has given Jesus a big thumbs-up in public, praising his social activism and his good example which, he notes, has lasted 2,000 years "which is pretty good when you think about it". However, he is having a hard time as he does not seem to have any solid faith to speak of. Dean left the Episcopalians because they would not support a bike path he favoured; he worshipped infrequently with the Congregationalists until he heard too many sermons about infrequent attenders; he married a Jew, raised his children as both Christians and Jews (good trick) and can now give a blessing in well-accented Hebrew. He is also not above using a Muslim phrase -- "inshallah" -- in discussing God's will and destiny.
Despite his cafeteria approach to faith, Dean asserts he prays every day and is "pretty religious". Moreover he claimed to know a lot about the Bible and when asked what his favourite New Testament book was he replied "Job". He went on to say that he didn't like the ending of Job though and was of the opinion of those (unnamed) scholars who said that there was no happy restoration of Job's family and fortune in the original version.
His claims to Biblical scholarship may be as flimsy as those to a deep Christian faith -- Job is, in fact, in the Old Testament. Astonshingly (and this speaks volumes about the educational level of reporters) no one called Dean on his slip and a few hours later he sought out the media to explain that he really knew Job was in the Old Testament and that his answer on what his favourite part of the New Testament was now "anything in the Gospels".
American Presidents don't have to be Christians -- good, bad or indifferent -- nor do they have to be Biblical quiz kids, but they should be sincere about their faith or lack of it. Dean's reputation so far has been that a guy who will speak his mind no matter how politically inopportune his remarks may be. He is after all the avowed candidate for the whites in pickup trucks with Confederate flags. His shifty pandering on the question of religion now reveals a man who will try to say something opportune even when he doesn't mean it.
Only 11 months to the electon and I'm having fun already.
According to European Union President Romano Prodi Europe could have prevented war in Iraq.
"If Europe had been present and united, I believe, we would not have seen the war on Iraq," Prodi said. "Then we would have managed to find a solution to preserve the peace."
Prodi then went on to claim that the EU could, if it really wanted, cure all known diseases including male pattern baldness, make a functioning space shuttle out of old ABBA album covers and bring an end to world hunger.
A superb speech by Michael Crichton on the dangers of "consensus science" and shaky prognostication."
Crichton argues that scientists have too often ignored inconvenient data when it clashed with an established scholarly consensus. He also condemns the use of predictive models that use formulas to which no hard values can be attached and where "educated guessing" merely amounts to confirming one's own prejudices.
The late Carl Sagan and Paul Ehrlich come in for especially rough handling for their predictions of nuclear winter and mass starvation -- predictions for which they could offer no proof but which they hoped would advance particular social policies. Because these predictions seemed to serve noble causes, each generated a comfortable "scientific consensus" which discourages skepticism about their claims and stigmatizes those who questioned them.
The latest example of this smug disregard for the true scientific process is the consensus that has developed around global warming. Those who dared to challenge the latest orthodoxy, such as Danish statistician Bjorn Lomborg, have been subjected to smear campaigns and a very un-scholarly villification. Lomborg was the target of a brutal academic mugging by the Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty which concluded he was a liar and unfit to comment on climate change. Greens around the world demanded that his editor be fired, that his publisher, Cambridge University Press, be boycotted and Lomborg be removed from his job as director of Denmark's Environmental Assessment Institute. Two weeks ago, however, the forces of climatic correctness got their comeuppance when the Danish Ministry of Science chose to back Lomborg and condemned the Committee on Scientific Dishonesty for its own dishonesty and lack of scientific rigor.
Anyone who has queried the consensus on Darwinism will be familiar with the rough ride given Lomborg. Proponents of Intelligent Design theory are accustomed to being accused of being fundamentalist rednecks out to turn back the clock to before the Scopes Monkey Trial. Perhaps at some future point they, like Lomborg, will be accorded a fairer hearing.
In the spirit of reflection that descends upon bloggers at this time of the year Dexter offers the following observations:
Canadians of the Year
Richard Klassen
In 1991 Klassen and 15 others were arrested by Saskatoon and charged with child molestation. The accusers were three foster children who told stories of being forced to drink blood, eat eye-balls and feces, take part in sexual orgies and witness human sacrifices. Despite the improbabilities and contradictions of these stories the full force of the law was brought to bear on Klassen and his family causing humiliation, shame and disruption of their lives until the accusers finally recanted.
Not content with having the charges dropped Klassen went on the attack and sued the public servants responsible for his ordeal, alleging malicious prosecution by police and lawyers. In late December he won his suit and the public vindication he had sought for years.
Christopher Kempling
In another case of persecution by public officials, Quesnel teacher Christopher Kempling has been convicted by the British Columbia College of Teachers for "conduct unbecoming a member of the BCCT". His offence was expressing his opinion to the local paper on the question of gay rights and for this thought crime he was suspended without pay. Note that he did not express these opinions in school nor has he been accused of discriminatory acts – his guilt lay in holding certain views contrary to those held by his masters. He has appealed this manifestation of totalitarianism to the Supreme Court of British Columbia and awaits their decision.
Earthlings of the Year
The Odd Couple: George Bush and Tony Blair
The decision by George Bush and Tony Blair to wage war on the Saddamite regime in Iraq was the best news for the survival of civilization in years. The institutions of international order had demonstrated themselves to be flabby paralytics unable to deal with the modern challenges of cross-border terrorism, the proliferation of WMD and internal genocide. The defeat of the Baathists brought an end to a squalid tyranny, accelerated the peace process in the Middle East, frightened the handful of rational Saudi and Pakistani politicians into reformism, undercut logistical support for terrorism, induced Libya to join the mainstream of the international community and is, as we speak, causing nightmares for despots in Iran, Syria and Sudan.
Useless Excrescence of the Year
Bill Graham, Foreign Affairs Minister
For declaring Canada to be too morally refined to participate in a war against a regime whose leaders joke and laugh while they blow apart its dissidents with grenades or feed them feet-first into industrial shredders. Despite acknowledging the brutality of the Iraqi regime and its possession of weapons of mass destruction (!) the lantern-jawed twit informed the House of Commons on March 20 that Canada would not be taking any military action , a decision “based on our judgment about the interest of Canadians in accordance with our principles and our deep and longstanding commitment to the United Nations and multilateral system and to the Security Council process.” And so our slide into global irrelevance continued.
Trouble on the Horizon in 2004
Irwin Cotler
If Paul Martin's decision to keep Bill Graham in the cabinet was the new prime minister's most inexplicable choice, his pick of Irwn Cotler as Minister of Justice was his most ominous. A notorious "human-rights activist" (i.e., incorrigible meddler and social engineer) Cotler will make us look back on grass-happy Martin Cauchon as a model of judicial restraint and good sense.
Thabo Mbeki
Already accused of hampering his country's fight against AIDS, South Africa's leader returned from a visit to Zimbabwe with remarks that chilled those who hoped for a continuation of the social peace arranged by Nelson Mandela. Mbeki expresed the thought that perhaps Zimbabwe's approach to the question of land distribution (race war and mass starvation) might be applied to South Africa.
2004 Predictions
Federal Election: a Liberal landslide; the destruction of the Bloc Quebecois; a modest revival of the NDP (though Svend Robinson loses his seat); a diminution in the number of Conservative seats but a gain for the Right in terms of regional representation.
Canada's Military: more disasters ahead for the over-stretched and underfunded armed forces. We pull out of Afghanistan, reduce our commitment to the Balkans and take a deep breath before we venture out again. Our submarines will continue to leak, our Sea Kings will continue to plummet and there will another scandal connected with the acquisition of the new helicopters.
American Election: the Democrats implode handing the November vote to Bush and the Republicans in a cake-walk. Barbara Streisand sets fire to herself in protest outside the United Nations building. Alec Baldwin moves to Paris; the Dixie Chicks move to Halifax and rename themselves the Maritime Maids; Michael Moore moves to Toronto and is named president of the CBC.
Sports: Detroit wins the Stanley Cup, Boston finally overcomes the Curse of the Bambino and take the World Series, Saskatchewan with a rejuvenated Henry Burris at QB brings home the Grey Cup.
Names I don’t care if I never hear again in 2004
Paris Hilton
Hans Blix
Britanny Spears
Laurier Lapierre
Sorry to See Them Go 2003
Gregory Peck, actor
Neil Postman, social critic
Walter Sisulu, South African civil rights leader
The "Columbia" shuttle astronauts
George Plimpton, writer
Keith Magnuson, Chicago Blackhawk
William Steig, artist
Mr Rogers, sweater model
Death Becomes Them 2003
Idi Amin, cannibal
Leni Riefenstahl, Nazi film-maker
Uday and Qusay Hussein, Doublemint Twins
Best Reason to Bring Back Public Disembowelment in 2004
Robert Mugabe
Dominique de Villepin
Their 15 Minutes Are Up
Madonna
Scott Brison
Al Gore